El Niño Outlook
A very strong, possibly record-breaking El Niño is underway and is expected to peak around December and dominate winter 2026–27. NOAA's outlook favors a warmer northern tier and a wetter southern tier from California to Florida, while parts of the northern Rockies, Great Lakes, Hawaii and Alaska lean drier. These are probabilities, not guarantees, but they matter for energy markets, agriculture, pipeline demand and local storm tracking.
Images: NOAA precipitation and temperature outlooks for winter 2026–27. Green/dark green = higher odds of wetter; brown = drier; red/orange = warmer.
A very strong (potentially record-breaking) El Niño is underway as of late October 2026 and is expected to dominate winter 2026–2027 (roughly December 2026–February 2027). Models and agencies (NOAA CPC, IRI, WMO) show high confidence it will strengthen further into the end of 2026 (peaking around December) and persist into early 2027, with near-100% odds of El Niño conditions through at least early spring 2027 in many outlooks.
El Niño shifts the jet stream southward/eastward over North America and rearranges global rainfall and temperature patterns. Stronger events increase the odds of classic impacts, though outcomes still vary by location and are not guaranteed. Seasonal outlooks give probabilities, not day-to-day forecasts.
United States (NOAA Winter Outlook, Dec 2026–Feb 2027)
- Warmer than average: Northern tier, including the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies, Midwest, Mississippi Valley, much of the East, and Alaska. Near-normal temperatures more likely in parts of the Southeast (including Florida). Equal chances in much of the Southwest and Hawaii.
- Wetter than average: Southern tier from California and the Southwest across the South to the Southeast/Florida, plus the East Coast. Highest confidence in the extreme Southeast and northern Florida. This raises risks of heavy rain, flooding, and mudslides on dry soils, while aiding drought relief in the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, Southeast, and East Coast.
- Drier than average: Parts of the northern Rockies/Mountain West, some Great Lakes areas, Hawaii, and portions of Alaska. Drought may develop or worsen in parts of the northern Rockies.
Much of the globe also faces elevated odds of above-normal temperatures. Impacts can cascade (floods, droughts, heat, agricultural stress, and secondary effects on food security and water). WMO notes the event is exceptionally strong, potentially off historical monitoring charts, with effects lasting beyond the peak.
Having this information is helpful to those either invest in energy markets, farmers, effects on pipelines (energy use) or local storm tracking in your communities.
